The production of mechanical transmission parts in my country started relatively late. Before the 1980s, there were no manufacturers specializing in the production of mechanical transmission parts, and the main equipment manufacturers produced their own accessories. In the late 1970s, in view of the high production costs, some European dealers came to China’s Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions for investigation. They believed that the local labor costs were not only low, but also had high manual skills and sufficient raw materials, so they began to purchase mechanical transmission parts from China. In the early 1980s, a number of factories producing mechanical transmission parts appeared in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions, and later expanded to the northern region. In the late 1980s, the production of mechanical transmission parts in my country was gradually marketized. Since the reform and opening up, after more than 30 years of development and the joint efforts of the whole industry, my country's mechanical transmission parts manufacturing industry has experienced several development stages such as introduction and digestion, independent development and product upgrading, and the technical level of the industry has been qualitatively improved. . The product status has been upgraded from soft tooth surface to hard tooth surface, and the number of manufacturers has grown to hundreds at present. The annual production scale of the industry has grown from billions of yuan to about 100 billion yuan at present, and the product series has also developed from a dozen at the beginning. Up to today's thousands of 3, the overall level of most products has reached the advanced level of similar foreign products, and many products that used to rely on imports have gradually ended the history of imports and have been replaced by domestic supplies. At the same time, as many complete sets and stand-alone equipment in our country gradually come out, many mechanical transmission parts and components in our country are also exported to all parts of the world with the host machine or separately, which indicates that my country's mechanical transmission parts industry has entered the international market. Compete for high and low competitive strength. In recent years, with the rapid development of my country's economy and the continuous expansion of foreign trade, the output of my country's mechanical transmission parts has increased from 19.05 million tons in 2011 to 34.62 million tons in 2016, a cumulative increase of 81.73%, and an average annual compound growth rate of 16.35. %. The market size of my country's mechanical transmission parts industry has grown from 314.4 billion yuan in 2011 to 605.9 billion yuan in 2016, a cumulative increase of 92.72%, and an average annual compound growth rate of 18.54%.

   3. Market demand analysis of mechanical transmission components

   (1) Overseas market demand analysis

   Because countries and regions such as Europe, the Middle East, and Australia basically do not produce or only produce a small amount of mechanical transmission parts, and China is the world's major producer of mechanical transmission parts, the overseas market has relatively high demand for Chinese mechanical transmission parts. Strong rigidity and viscosity. Before 2015, the demand for Chinese mechanical transmission parts and components in overseas markets had maintained a continuous growth trend. From 2015 to 2016, due to the continuous slowdown of global economic growth and global trade growth, the demand for Chinese mechanical transmission parts and components in overseas markets fluctuated to a certain extent. Looking around the world, after the international financial crisis in 2008, in order to find a new way out to promote economic growth, major overseas manufacturing countries began to re-emphasize manufacturing, and introduced manufacturing upgrading plans one after another, such as the US National Strategic Plan for Advanced Manufacturing, "German Industry 4.0 Strategy", "British Industry 2050 Strategy" and so on. One commonality of these strategies/plans is that the manufacturing industries of various countries are gradually developing towards intelligence and automation. The more automated the product production line, the higher the probability of using mechanical transmission parts and components. The design of transmission products, The demand for usage will also continue to grow. As investment, manufacturing and trade continue to recover, commodity-exporting developing countries benefited from the rebound in commodity prices. The global economy grew by 3.0% in 2017, which was significantly better than expected. It is expected to accelerate slightly to 3.1% in 2018. The global economy is expected to grow by 3.0% and 2.9% in 2019-2020, respectively.

2012-2020 Global Economic Growth Rate and Forecast

   In addition, due to the major overseas developed countries represented by the United States and Germany paying more attention to the development of their own equipment manufacturing industry, the equipment manufacturing industry has become the main battlefield for global manufacturing value reconstruction, competition pattern change and innovation drive, and will become the main battlefield for economic growth in the next 10 years. The main driving force for development 4. The development of the equipment manufacturing industry in major overseas developed countries will effectively promote the demand for the quantity and quality of the host accessories (such as mechanical transmission parts) in various countries. Emerging developing countries represented by China are in a period of accelerated industrialization, marketization and urbanization, and are also in a period of consumption expansion and structural upgrading. For some time to come, the equipment manufacturing industry will usher in rare opportunities for development, and it will also provide a huge market space for the development of the mechanical transmission parts industry. It can be seen that in the next few years, the market prospect of global mechanical transmission parts is relatively optimistic.

   (2) Domestic market demand analysis

   The production of mechanical transmission parts and components is obviously driven by terminal demand. In recent years, with the development of my country's economy, industries such as petroleum, ships, automobiles, and air conditioners have shown rapid development, which has effectively promoted the growth of my country's market demand for mechanical transmission parts and components. For example, in the field of construction machinery, as one of the important core components, with the rapid upgrading of construction machinery in my country, the demand for transmission parts has broad prospects. At the same time, China's export of construction machinery products such as loaders, forklifts, bulldozers, motor graders, and road rollers is growing rapidly, which will effectively drive the development of the transmission parts industry supporting the main engine. Therefore, in the next few years, with the rapid and stable development of my country's economy and the continuous development of downstream application industries, the demand for mechanical transmission parts in the domestic market will increase, and the market size of the mechanical transmission parts industry will maintain steady growth, thereby driving The growth of the supply of mechanical transmission parts in my country. It is estimated that by 2022, the output of mechanical transmission parts in my country will reach 59.29 million tons.

2017-2022 China's mechanical transmission parts output forecast trend (10,000 tons)

In 2017, the market size of my country's mechanical transmission parts industry will reach 662.5 billion yuan; by 2022, the market size of China's mechanical transmission parts industry is expected to exceed 1 trillion yuan.

2017-2022 China's mechanical transmission parts industry market size forecast trend (100 million yuan)

   4. The main development trend of the industry

   1. The application field continues to expand and the market continues to expand

   Rising Demand for Mechanical Transmission Components in Developing Countries Similar to what happened in the past in developed countries, the demand for Mechanical Transmission Components is already growing. Correspondingly, the manufacturing centers of mechanical transmission components are shifting to developing countries to take advantage of lower costs to meet market demands. Many manufacturers of mechanical transmission components are constantly entering these countries with fast-growing economies. Markets in developing countries will offer high growth opportunities for the mechanical transmission components industry. In the future, with the application of mechanical transmission parts and components in more and more fields, the domestic mechanical transmission parts market will continue to expand. Continue to get capital infusions. In many ways, the growth of the manufacturing industry in Asia has contributed to the growth of the mechanical transmission components market.

   2. Gradually increase the added value of products

   With the continuous advancement of science and technology, the increasing demand of consumers, and the intensification of market competition, the development of the mechanical transmission parts industry has gradually shown two characteristics: First, high-tech electronic technology, material technology and mechanical transmission parts The combination of parts and products endows mechanical transmission parts and products with new functions such as computerization and program control. The second is the combination of other industry products such as plastic products, aluminum products and stainless steel products with transmission parts and components, making transmission parts and components a composite product with broader functions and applications. The formation of the above two characteristics basically represents the development trend of my country's modern mechanical transmission parts industry, making mechanical transmission parts products have new features such as high technical content, high quality, high added value, and wide application fields. It has ensured a larger living space and stronger competitiveness for mechanical transmission parts and components, and marked that the development of the mechanical transmission parts industry has entered a new stage.

   3. Intelligent manufacturing continues to advance in the industry

   The "13th Five-Year Plan" economic pattern will enter a period of deep adjustment, and the international industrial division of labor is being reshaped. my country is facing the double squeeze of "return" from developed countries and "diversion of low-end and mid-end" from developing countries. The country is deeply promoting the transformation of the equipment manufacturing industry Upgrade and vigorously develop the equipment manufacturing industry represented by industrial robots and intelligent manufacturing. With the country's emphasis on the equipment manufacturing industry and the acceleration of the localization of major equipment, the mechanical transmission parts industry will also face new challenges and opportunities. It is of great urgent significance for the mechanical transmission parts industry to improve its independent innovation capability and technical level, and to move towards intelligent manufacturing as soon as possible.

   5. Favorable and unfavorable factors affecting the development of the industry

   1. Favorable factors affecting the development of the industry

   (1) The rapid development of the main engine industry provides a large market space for the mechanical transmission parts industry

   The main engine industries in the machinery industry have maintained rapid growth, especially the development of the main engine industries such as petroleum, automobiles, home appliances and construction machinery that have a large demand for mechanical transmission parts, providing a large market space for the mechanical transmission parts industry. At the same time, due to the continuous improvement and improvement of the performance and life of the main engine, higher requirements are put forward for the precision, performance and service life of mechanical transmission parts and components, which will also promote the technological progress of the mechanical transmission parts industry.

   (2) National policy support promotes the sustainable and stable development of the mechanical transmission parts industry

   The development of the mechanical transmission parts industry has always benefited from the emphasis and support of national policies on the main engine industry and its own industry. The country's continuous introduction of relevant industrial policies will promote the sustainable and stable development of the mechanical transmission parts industry. The "Several Opinions on Accelerating the Revitalization of my country's Equipment Manufacturing Industry" promulgated by the State Council clearly stated that by 2020, the economic aggregate of my country's equipment manufacturing industry will enter the top three and become an important equipment manufacturing base in the world. It also pointed out that it is necessary to develop a group of large-scale equipment manufacturing enterprise groups with strong competitiveness, and form a number of internationally renowned and distinctive equipment manufacturing centers. The rapid development of the equipment manufacturing industry will definitely drive the demand for mechanical transmission parts and components as supporting components, and promote the simultaneous and rapid development of the mechanical transmission parts industry. Industrial policies issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, such as the "Implementation Plan for the Revitalization of Mechanical Basic Components" and "Issuance of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" Development Plan for Mechanical Basic Components, Basic Manufacturing Processes, and Basic Material Industries, have also pointed out industrial development for the development of the mechanical transmission parts industry. direction. Chapter 22 of Chapter 5 of the Thirteenth Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development clearly stated that the implementation of "Made in China 2025" should focus on improving the innovation and basic capabilities of the manufacturing industry, and promote information technology and manufacturing. The deep integration of technology will promote the development of the manufacturing industry in the direction of intelligence, greenness and service, and cultivate new competitive advantages in the manufacturing industry.

   2. Unfavorable factors affecting the development of the industry

   (1) The production scale of the enterprise is relatively small and the development capability is weak

   The characteristic of my country's mechanical transmission parts industry is that there are many small and medium-sized enterprises, and the production scale is generally small. And similar foreign enterprises are relatively large in scale, with marketing networks all over the world. Correspondingly, the investment in research and development of foreign mechanical transmission parts giants is far from that of domestic enterprises. Most domestic enterprises have low technological development capabilities and lack of products with independent intellectual property rights, which affects the market competitiveness of products and the further development of enterprises.

   (2) Product quality is uneven, and the industrial ecological environment needs to be improved

   Due to the large differences in the technical level, equipment conditions and management level of enterprises in the mechanical transmission parts industry, the quality of products in the industry is uneven. Expansion and promotion in foreign markets. At the same time, there are still many low-end products in the industry, few high-tech products, and insufficient connection between production and demand in the industry. The overall ecological environment of the industry needs to be continuously improved.

   6. Relevance with upstream and downstream industries, and the impact of the development of upstream and downstream industries on the development of the industry